Statistical Preview: Raith Rovers vs Dunfermline Athletic

Ahead of Friday night’s Fife Derby, both sides go into the match on four points, with Dunfermline only ahead due to a superior goal difference. A win here would guarantee finishing the week above their rivals.

Dunfermline Athletic’s Form Guide

Using the Raith Rovers v Dunfermline Athletic Match Centre on Andy’s Bet Club, Dunfermline have made a strong start to the season. 

Their only slip-ups so far have been a goalless draw in the opening league game against Greenock Morton and a defeat to Premiership side Hearts in the League Cup.

– 2–0 Win v Airdrieonians (H) – Championship

– 1–1 Draw v Greenock Morton (A) – Championship

– 2–0 Win v Stirling (H) – League Cup

– 2–1 Win v Hamilton Academical (H) – League Cup

– 4-0 Win v Dumbarton (A) – League Cup

Dunfermline Athletic’s League Matches this Season:

Dunfermline Athletic v Airdrieonians

On the face of the stats, this game looked fairly even. Airdrieonians had more of the ball, while Dunfermline managed slightly more shots. However, the scoreline told a different story, with Dunfermline running out 2-0 winners.

Looking deeper into the data shows why. Although Airdrie saw more possession, they struggled to turn it into meaningful attacking positions, recording just 10 touches in the penalty area compared to Dunfermline’s 18.

Dunfermline achieved this by playing progressively when in possession. While they still made 135 sideways or backwards passes, they consistently looked to move the ball forward, completing 62 accurate progressive passes. In contrast, Airdrie recorded 181 sideways or backwards passes but managed only 53 progressive ones.

Crosses were another key feature of Dunfermline’s play. They delivered 24 compared to Airdrie’s four, with a slightly higher accuracy of 29% to 25%.

Greenock Morton v Dunfermline Athletic

This opening-day game was a cagey affair, producing a combined xG of just 1.02, with Dunfermline conceding only 0.24 of that. Morton managed nine shots, but a strong Dunfermline defence restricted them to mainly speculative efforts. Six of those attempts came from outside the box, which contributed to a poor overall accuracy of just 22%.

Dunfermline’s strong defensive display came from pressing high, recovering the ball 21 times in their attacking third, which prevented many of Morton’s attacking moves before they started.

They were also effective at disrupting Morton’s attempts to progress the ball. Morton completed just 44% of their passes into the final third, with Dunfermline making 39 interceptions to break up play.

Discipline was another strength. Dunfermline committed only 11 fouls and picked up just one yellow card, not being drawn into Morton’s more aggressive approach with 18 fouls and three yellow cards.

Dunfermline Athletic’s One to Watch:

Jeremiah Chilokoa-Mullen: The right-sided defender has been one of Dunfermline’s standout performers in their opening league matches, helping secure two clean sheets while keeping his discipline with just two fouls. He has also been effective defensively, making four interceptions and six clearances.

Mullen has also shown his attacking value. He won the ball high up the pitch to set up Andy Tod’s goal against Airdrieonians and has contributed to other attacks with 13 long balls and four crosses in the two games.

Final Thoughts:

Dunfermline will be aiming to maintain their perfect defensive record against Raith Rovers. They are likely to concede more possession, as they have done so far in the league, with opponents averaging 53% of the ball.

The key will be stopping Raith from progressing into dangerous areas, something Dunfermline successfully limited against Morton and Airdrie. This could be a decisive battle, with Raith averaging 38 completed passes into the final third per game compared to just 29 for Dunfermline’s previous opponents.

Going forward, Dunfermline will look to replicate the shot quality they produced against Airdrieonians rather than against Morton, focusing on creating chances inside the box. In that match, only three of their 10 shots came from outside the area, creating an average shot distance of just 15 metres compared to the league average of 18.7 metres.

Raith should also be prepared for a high volume of crosses into their box. Dunfermline averaged 22 per match, and with Raith winning just 43% of their aerial duels, this could be a dangerous route of attack.

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