Statistical Preview: Raith Rovers vs Ayr United

Ayr United come into this weekend three points behind Raith after a 2-0 loss for the Rovers last week away to Ross County. This fixture marks the start of the second round of Championship matches, with Raith having already faced every team once. The reverse fixture of this matchup at Somerset Park ended in a 1-0 win for Raith.

Ayr United’s Form Guide

Using the Raith Rovers vs Ayr United’s Match Centre on Andy’s Bet Club, we can see that Ayr United have lost just one league match this season, which was that earlier defeat to Raith. However, they have drawn five games and recorded their first win in late September against Dunfermline Athletic.

●  0–0 Draw vs St. Johnstone (A) – Championship

●  4–2 Win vs Airdrieonians (H) – Championship

●  0–1 Win vs Dunfermline Athletic (A) – Championship

●  1–1 Draw vs Ross County (H) – Championship

●  1–1 Draw vs Queen’s Park (H) – Championship

Ayr United’s Recent League Matches:

St. Johnstone vs Ayr United

St. Johnstone dominated possession in this match with 67.1% and had almost double the number of shots as Ayr United. Despite this, they only managed one shot on target, highlighting their lack of clinical finishing as they underperformed their xG by 1.3.

Ayr created 0.25xG from six shots, with two on target. The main reason for their low xG was their shooting distance, with an average of 20.5 metres, as four of their six shots came from outside the box. This meant they only created two chances inside the area, compared to nine for St. Johnstone.

Ayr allowed St. Johnstone considerable time on the ball, with an average of 4.8 passes per possession compared to 2.8 for Ayr. This allowed St. Johnstone to maintain excellent passing accuracy, completing 91% of progressive passes and 94% of both backward and sideways passes, helping them to control possession and create chances.

Ayr United vs Airdrieonians

Despite Ayr dominating the shot count with 16 compared to four for Airdrieonians, they only had marginally more possession. Ayr converted four goals from those 16 shots, giving them a 25% conversion rate, while Airdrie were even more efficient with 50%. Both were well above the league average of 11%.

Defensively, Ayr made nearly double the number of clearances (22 vs 13), showing a preference for a more direct, safety-first defensive style. However, they were less effective in ground duels, winning 57% compared to 69% for Airdrie.

Ayr’s defensive shape prevented Airdrie from building attacks, restricting them to just 40% accuracy for passes into the final third compared to 64% for Ayr, and 55% accuracy for forward passes compared to 67% for Ayr.

Ayr United’s One to Watch:

Liam Dick: The former Raith Rovers defender transferred to Ayr in the summer and has made a strong start, starting every league match this season. 

He has helped maintain Ayr’s solid defensive record with a 76% aerial duel win rate and an average of 16 recoveries per match, while committing just 0.4 fouls per game.

Final Thoughts:

Raith may face issues with Ayr’s shooting efficiency. Ayr’s average shot accuracy of 39% is notably above the Championship average of 36%, while Raith’s opponents have averaged 43%, suggesting Ayr could maintain a high level of accuracy in this match.

Ayr’s pressing game is another area to watch. They force an average of 26 opposition losses per match in the attacking third, compared to 20 for Raith’s typical opponents. In the middle third, they also force slightly more turnovers, with 55 compared to 51, showing how their pressing limits opponents’ buildup play.

This pressure reduces opponents’ chances to shoot, with Ayr’s opposition averaging only nine shots per match compared to 11.6 against Raith. This suggests Ayr are adept at stopping attacks early and preventing shooting opportunities from developing.

In attack, Ayr are likely to move the ball with greater tempo and directness than Raith’s recent opponents. Expect fewer backwards and sideways passes but more progressive and final-third passes as they look to break through Raith’s lines.You can find more high-quality football statistical previews, football betting tips, and the best betting sites over at Andy’s Bet Club. 18+, Please Gamble Responsibly.

Back to News