Statistical Preview: Raith Rovers vs Airdrieonians

Following last weekend’s loss at Queen’s Park, Raith Rovers host bottom side Airdrieonians at Stark’s Park on Saturday, with both sides going into this clash managerless at the time of writing.

Raith are on 18 points for the season, 10 clear of Airdrieonians, and are sixth in the table, four spots better off than the Diamonds.

Airdrieonians’ Form Guide

Using the Raith Rovers v Airdrieonians Match Centre on Andy’s Bet Club, we can see that the Diamonds have struggled this season, with just one Championship victory. They have yet to win on the road this season – but Queen’s Park had not won at home before last weekend, so Raith will be wary.

1-1 Draw vs Partick Thistle (H) – Championship

3-0 Loss vs St Johnstone (A) – Championship

1-0 Win vs Arbroath (H) – Championship

4-0 Loss vs Dunfermline (H) – Championship

0-0 Draw vs Queen’s Park (A) – Championship

Airdrieonians’ Recent League Matches:

Airdrieonians v Partick Thistle

Only a horrendous goalkeeping error from Cade Melrose in injury time prevented Airdrieonians from claiming a second successive home league win and taking a mightily impressive scalp in the shape of in-form Partick. Victory would not have been ill deserved, either. Airdrieonians generated 1.04xG to their opponents’ 0.6, before a weak late strike denied them the win.

Airdrie’s attacks were balanced across the pitch, but their danger came largely through the centre. There was no plan to get the byline and deliver crosses. Instead, they tried to work the ball into more dangerous central positions, 63% of their xG came from through the middle.

By contrast, they were attacked primarily down their left. Partick targeted 26 of their 50 attacks down that flank and fashioned 51% of their opportunities from those areas.

Airdrie were happy to be a passive defensive team, offering just 17.2 PPDA (passes per defensive action), a measure of pressing in which a lower figure indicates more pressure. This is way above their season average of 11.19, pointing to a conscious choice to be more compact and harder to break down.  

St Johnstone v Airdrieonians

Airdrie are not the first team to be handily beaten by St Johnstone this season, with the Perth side 3-0 winners at McDiarmid Park. The Diamonds were right in the match for a significant period of the first half, missing a big chance through Chris Mochrie early on, before the Saints took over. 

The plan was initially to contain their opponents and play on the counter. Airdrie sat deep in the first half and they had a PPDA of 22.7 in the first 15 minutes. In possession, there was intent to keep the ball, but there was little penetration, as they managed just 0.33 attacks per minute.

After falling behind, Airdrie were forced to become more proactive. Between minutes 30-75, their PPDA stayed consistent at around the 12 mark, before collapsing in the final quarter of an hour when the game was decided. Indeed, during this period, they tried to do everything a little more quickly, with recoveries rising to 0.27 per minute in the quarter of an hour after the break, and even their long pass share notably jumping to 32% as they tried to offer Saints a different problem.

The Perth side repelled everything that was thrown at them, though. Airdrie managed only four shots over the course of the match, while their 16 positional attacks was well below their season average of 26.5.

Airdrieonians’ One to Watch:

Euan Henderson: In a team badly lacking in cutting edge, the 25-year-old former Hearts striker brings much of the Diamonds threat. He has six goals for the season, including both of the strikes that have been scored under the interim management team. Henderson leads Airdrie in shots per match (1.8), shots on target per match (1.0), and successful dribbles per game (1.8).

Final Thoughts:

At the time of writing, Airdrie are still managerless, with Aaron Taylor-Sinclair in charge on an interim basis. Things have improved under Taylor-Sinclair, with four points in three games against the clubs who are at the top of the league a clear sign of some kind of recovery at Airdrie. They have already won as many points under the new management team as they did under the previous one.

Despite this, it’s hard to draw too many conclusions about what to expect from this new-look Diamonds side. After beating Arbroath, they have been forced to line up against the two best clubs in the league, matches that arguably require a unique approach given the form of the teams.

What is clear is that Taylor-Sinclair is happy to play in a more passive manner if it requires. It’s also evident after three games in which Airdrie have produced a total of only 24 crosses – their season average is 13.9 per game – that they will seek to work the ball into the box in a more methodical manner. In the first 10 games of the season, they generated more than 1.0xG just once. Under this interim regime, they have done so in two of three games against the best in the league.

Airdrie’s shape has also changed. They have gone 4-3-3 in each of the last three matches, having used that formation only once before this season.

Raith are, therefore, going into the unknown against a team they have beaten in only one of their last 10 meetings, although by changing manager themselves this week, the Diamonds are also blind.You can find more high-quality Football Predictions and betting tips over at Andy’s Bet Club, as well as a list of the Best Betting Sites. 18+, Please Gamble Responsibly.

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