Statistical Preview: Queen’s Park vs Raith Rovers

Raith Rovers will attempt to climb back into the top four of the Championship when they travel to Lesser Hampden to face Queen’s Park on Saturday.

The Spiders are embroiled in the heart of the relegation battle and sit 9th on 10 points, with Rovers going into the weekend’s round of fixtures 6th on 18 points.

Queen’s Park’s Form Guide

Using the Queen’s Park v Raith Rovers Match Stats on Andy’s Bet Club, we can see that the Spiders are draw specialists, with seven of their Championship fixtures ending all square. They are yet to win at home in league play this season.

5-0 Loss vs Partick Thistle (A) – Championship

0-0 Draw vs Ayr United (H) – Championship

0-0 Draw vs Airdrie (H) – Championship

4-1 Loss vs Arbroath (A) – Championship

0-0 Draw vs Dunfermline (A) – Championship

Queen’s Park’s Recent League Matches:

Partick Thistle v Queen’s Park

Up against one of the form teams in the league, Queen’s Park were absolutely blown away. They generated just 0.19 xG and controlled only 29.6% of possession, key statistics that were well below their season average of 0.94 and 41.7% respectively. So what went wrong for them?

Queen’s Park went into the game with the aim of containing their opponents. They were extremely passive in the early stages of the game, with an extraordinary 81.0 PPDA in the first 15 minutes, indicating that they were happy to allow their opponents, largely unchallenged, possession. Partick Thistle failed to muster a shot during this period but netted with their first meaningful effort of the match, changing everything.

There was a notable change of tactics from Partick after the break as they stopped trying to pass through the middle and started looking wider to get crosses into the box. After attempting just six first half crosses Partick delivered 16 in the second period and finished the match with 4.36 PSxG (post-shot expected goals) – a measure of shot quality.

QP were dominated in duels near their goal. Partick bullied them by winning an impressive nine of 14 in the visiting side’s box, putting them under even more pressure.

In return, Queen’s Park were unable to reply with anything of note. Their five shots were all speculative efforts of 0.05 xG or less.

Queen’s Park vs Ayr United

Queen’s Park’s 0-0 draw against Ayr United a fortnight ago was a story of survival in a match dictated by the fact that the Spiders went down to 10 men after just nine minutes when Henry Fieldson was sent off.

The hosts would likely have had to absorb pressure in this match in any case, and that dynamic was only magnified in the circumstances. They sat exceptionally deep and tried to stop their opponents from finding the net. While they proved successful, they had to ride their luck, with Ayr creating and missing opportunities worth 2.47 xG.

Queen’s Park’s determination not to allow spaces in their rearguard is highlighted by the 31.67 PPDA (passes allowed per defensive action) they had at the end of the match. A measure of pressing that lowers the higher the intensity gets, their season average is 13.66 – which is still the highest figure in the league.

Unsurprisingly, the Spiders struggled to keep the ball when they were a man short, managing just 1.85 passes per possession. This was a new low for the season, dipping beneath the 2.15 they had against Raith on the opening day of the campaign.

Defensively, though, they were impeccable. They managed 67 interceptions and 45 clearances, well above their season norm of 46.15 and 21.

Queen’s Park’s One to Watch:

Euan Murray: Defending is absolutely vital to Queen’s Park given their difficulties scoring at present, and the former Raith centre back is their key man here. He showed his qualities in the scoreless draw against Ayr, leading his side with 14 interceptions and 15 clearances as his side got a point against the odds.

Final Thoughts:

With three of Queen’s Park’s last five matches finishing without a goal, it’s hard to forecast a game that will be packed with action, yet Raith can learn from Partick Thistle’s approach in the second half last weekend.

The Jags got their three goals after the break in that match from crosses, after going into half time 2-0 up, and it was clearly a tactical decision to try to exploit the wide areas from the home side’s management. In the first half, they had rarely explored these situations, but got a good deal of joy from doing so after the break.

Getting the opening goal will be key for the hosts. Queen’s Park showed against Ayr that they are accomplished at packing their defence when the situation calls for it. They are already the least proactive defensive side in the league with 13.65 PPDA, so they could become a bit of a nightmare to play if they are given something tangible to hang onto.

Offensively, Queen’s are on an alarming trend. In each of their last four games, they have dipped below their season average for shots (7.54), while they have only once managed to rise above their modest average xG of 0.94 on one occasion – a 4-1 loss at Arbroath.

This dip has coincided with the absence of runaway top scorer, Josh Fowler, who has five goals in 10 games. He returned last week, though, and should be closely policed given he stands 8th in the league’s scoring charts.

You can find more high-quality football statistical previews, and Scottish Football Predictions, over at Andy’s Bet Club. 18+, Please Gamble Responsibly.

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