Statistical Preview: Greenock Morton vs Raith Rovers

Both sides head into this match with a good opportunity to climb the table, as only one other Championship game is scheduled to take place this weekend, due to international call-ups elsewhere.

Greenock Morton’s Form Guide

Using the Greenock Morton v Raith Rovers Match Centre on Andy’s Bet Club, we can see that Morton have drawn all their Championship games so far this season.

In the League Cup, they impressed in the group stage by progressing to the knockouts, but their run came to an end with defeat to Aberdeen.

●  1–1 Draw v St. Johnstone (A) – Championship

●  2–2 Draw v Ayr United (H) – Championship

●  0–3 Lose v Aberdeen (H) – League Cup

●  1–1 Draw v Partick Thistle (A) – Championship

●  0–0 Draw v Dunfermline Athletics (H) – Championship

Greenock Morton’s Last Two League Matches Analysed:

St. Johnstone v Greenock Morton

In this 1-1 draw, St. Johnstone dominated the match with considerably more possession and shots than Morton. Morton were efficient with the chances they did create, scoring their early goal from a total of just 0.22 xG. After that, St. Johnstone generated 1.87 xG and created several big chances, equalising in the final 10 minutes.

Morton’s early lead likely influenced their approach, as they sat back and allowed St. Johnstone to dominate possession (67%) and complete 73 passes into the final third under little pressure. Morton, on the other hand, struggled to move the ball forwards, with just 25 accurate progressive passes compared to 82 for St. Johnstone. They looked instead for more direct ways to attack, attempting 47 long passes, but with a low success rate of 38%.

Out of possession, Morton were busy defensively, contesting 101 duels and winning 58% of them. They were, however, weak in the air, coming out on top in only 28% of aerial duels.

Much of Morton’s work was done deep in their own half. Over half of their recoveries came in their defensive third, with just six in the attacking third. This, along with making fewer interceptions than St. Johnstone, shows they rarely pressed and sat back for long spells of the match.

Greenock Morton v Ayr United

Similarly, in this game Ayr generated considerably more xG at 2.55 compared to 1.2 for Morton, with 0.79 of Morton’s coming from a penalty, meaning only 0.41 xG was created from non-penalty opportunities.

The location of the shots shows why the xG was so different. Ayr took only two of their 13 shots from outside the box and had an average shot distance of just 9.8 metres, a significant difference to the 20.5 metres of Morton. This shows that Morton conceded several high-quality chances, allowing Ayr very close to their goal on multiple occasions.

Set pieces were also a weakness for Morton, as they conceded five shots from just seven Ayr corners, with both of their goals coming from these situations.

In this match, Morton were more effective at creating chances, having 10 shots. They created these by playing more passes into the final third and holding the ball for longer spells, averaging 3.3 passes per possession.

Greenock Morton’s One to Watch:

Eamonn Brophy: Greenock Morton’s striker has hit form with three goals in his last two games. He is averaging 1.8 shots per match this season, giving him an impressive conversion rate of 43%.

Final Thoughts:

Although Greenock Morton have drawn all their games so far, they are averaging just 0.67 xG per match, while conceding 1.59. Raith Rovers will be hoping this overperformance in their results will start to balance out, as it tends to across the season.

One clear avenue for Raith to target is corners. Morton have been weak in this area, with 47% of corners against them leading to a shot. At the other end, they have been far less effective, converting only 20% of their own corners into shots – compared to the Championship average of 39%.

Out of possession, it is unlikely Morton will press Raith high up the pitch with an average of just nine recoveries in their attacking third. However, they do lose the ball often in their own defensive third, on average 30 times per match, so Raith could benefit from pressing aggressively to force turnovers in these dangerous areas.You can find more high-quality football statistical previews, football betting tips, and the best Free Bet offers over at Andy’s Bet Club. 18+, Please Gamble Responsibly.

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